2010 Hurricane Season In Review

The so called “hyper-active” Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2010 came to an end last month as the third most active in history. It ties 1887 and 1995 with 19 named storms. There were 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year. Only 2005 and 1969 had more activity.

Interesting enough, these numbers are almost exactly what was forecast by Colorado State University, they had 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes in their long range forecast. NOAA’s outlook issued May 27th had 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes. The “average” since 1995 has been 11 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Florida escaped any hurricane problems again last season. The last major hurricane to hit Florida was in 2005, when Hurricane Wilma hit South Florida. The last significant system to cause damage in Florida was slow-moving Tropical Storm Fay in 2008. In 2010, Tropical Storm Bonnie did cross Florida in July. Bonnie was a very weak system and was almost immediately downgraded to a tropical depression. So then beckons the question, why has Florida been lucky?

There are three reasons for the tracks of the storms last season. First, a strong upper high held over the Southeastern U.S., Gulf of Mexico, and Florida for much of the season. This high was one of the primary reasons our summer was one of the hottest on record. The high also caused drought conditions in the Southeastern U.S. Most of the Caribbean systems were kept on a southerly track, impacting Mexico, Belize and Central America. Other systems which could’ve threatened Florida, such as Nicole and Paula, were held to the south or were unable to develop.

Secondly, a series of upper level troughs developed again this summer in the Northeastern United States. These troughs made it easy for long-track “Cape Verde” type hurricanes to re-curve in the Atlantic. One of these, Hurricane Igor, was one of the worst hurricane disasters on record for Newfoundland.

In the end, the 2010 hurricane season is a vivid reminder of what we always say at the beginning of each season. It doesn’t matter what the forecast numbers say. If the season is active and no storm hits you, you probably don’t think it was been that busy. If the forecast is for a slow year, and one storm hits you, you think it has been a bad season. Therefore, each year we’ll continue to help our clients prepare their roofing systems for each season the same, no matter what the long-term forecast. After all, each season is different and it only takes one storm to make it a bad year.