Another Busy One? Initial 2011 Hurricane Season Prediction Is Out

It’s time to start looking ahead to the 2011 season, which starts tomorrow! The famed storm prognosticators at the National Hurricane Center issued their crystal-ball look at the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, and they’re again calling for an above-active one.

That forecast comes in the wake of their 2010 estimates, which correctly projected – although ultimately underestimated – a busy hurricane season.

Researchers are predicting that we’ll have 17 named storms next year, nine of which will strengthen into hurricanes. The 50-year average is 9.6 named storms and six hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center is also projecting that there will be a 73 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast. The annual average is 52 percent.

The basis for the above-average projection is extended-range statistical predictions that utilize nearly six decades of past data. While El Nino conditions are unlikely next year, the researchers said sea-surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic remain at record warm levels. La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific are generally conducive of an active hurricane season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

During the 2010 hurricane season there were a total of 19 named storms, tying 1887 and 1995 for third highest on record.

The Hurricane Center team projected there to be 15 named storms before the season began in June 2010. Of those 19 storms, 12 strengthened into hurricanes. That ties 1969 for the second highest on record. Five of those became major hurricanes, reaching Category 3 or higher. But the Hurricane Center said two major factors kept most of the storms from threatening the U.S. mainland. First, the jet stream that roasted and dried out much of the eastern U.S. acted as a natural barrier to keep many storms out at sea. Then because so many of the storms formed in the eastern Atlantic close to Africa, they began curving northward before they even reached the Caribbean. Simply put, here in Florida, we were lucky.

Regardless of the predictions, let’s not forget Hurricane Andrew, which caused devastating damage in South Florida. Andrew was actually part of a rather mild Hurricane Season, but proves that just one storm can make it seem active for us. Take the proper precautions and get RAMCON out to your facilities for a pre-storm inspection. As a RAMCON client, it’s free and will help identify problem areas and keep you safe from Mother Nature’s wrath.