Busy 2013 Hurricane Season Predicted by Meteorologists

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be more active than usual, with 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, according to the annual spring forecast of Colorado State University meteorologists. That compares with a 1981-2010 average of 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes each year.

We always remind our clients that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

The forecast was released on last Wednesday. On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center announced that “Sandy” has been retired from the six-year list of names used for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin because of the damage and death caused by the 2012 storm in Jamaica, Cuba and the United States. Sandy is the 77th name to be retired since storms began to be named in 1950, and will be replaced with “Sara,” beginning in 2018.

How did they come up with these predictions? Well, forecasters compare meteorological and water temperature conditions in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the conditions that occurred each year between 1981 and 2010 to come up with their predictions. This year, they say, the above-average forecast is being triggered by unusually warmer temperatures in the tropical Atlantic during the past few months and the low chance of an El Nino event occurring this summer and fall. El Nino is a warmer-than-average surface water pattern in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean that has been shown to increase wind shear in the Atlantic that obstructs the formation of hurricanes, and correlates to fewer hurricanes. La Nina, which is colder than average water temperatures, tends to reduce shear in the Atlantic, increasing the number of hurricanes. This year’s neutral Pacific water temperature conditions, when combined with other factors, points to a more active season.

The second key factor is warmer than normal sea surface temperatures from January through March in the tropical region of the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricanes form. The forecast said past years with similar warmer winter to spring sea surface temperatures have seen weaker trade winds and westerly high-level shearing winds, lower than normal sea level pressures and above-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic during the following August to October period.

The weaker trade winds make it easier for patches of thunderstorms to gather as tropical waves move across the Atlantic, while the slower upper level winds allow the storm clouds to grow taller. Lower than normal sea level pressures, again, allow thunderstorms to be created more quickly, while the higher temperature surface water provides the heat source for those clouds. As the thunderstorms grow, there’s a greater chance they’ll form tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes. The forecasters predict a 96 percent chance of a hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coast, compared to a long-term average of 84 percent, and an 80 percent chance of a hurricane hitting somewhere along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, compared to the long-term average of 60 percent.

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